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Math for Kids23 chapters | 325 lessons

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Lesson Transcript

Instructor:
*Carla Palomino*

Have you ever been at a birthday party picking out candies from a mystery box? In this lesson, you will learn what probability is, important vocabulary and written probabilities in number form. That chocolate candy will be yours next time!

**Probability** is the chance that something will happen, or how likely it is that an event will occur. When we toss a coin in the air, we use the word probability to refer to how likely it is that the coin will land with the heads side up.

When we talk about probability, we use a few words that help us understand the chance for something to happen. Probability can be expressed in the following ways:

**Certain**: an event will happen without a doubt**Likely**: the probability of one event is higher than the probability of another event**Equal probability**: the chance of each event happening is the same**Unlikely**: one event is less likely to happen versus another event**Impossible**: there's no chance of an event happening

Let's use an example: you want to go to your best friend's birthday party next Saturday. Your parents decide to make a deal with you. Mom says, ''It is certain you will go to the party if you pass your test on Friday.'' In other words, if you pass that test, you will go. No doubt about it.

Dad says, ''If you pass your test on Friday, it is likely you will go to the birthday party.'' In other words, your chances of going are greater than staying at home if you pass.

Dad also says, ''We already have plans for Saturday, there is an equal probability for you to go to the party or to stay with us, we will see on Friday.'' Meaning both events can happen, both are equally probable.

Mom says, ''If you don't pass that test on Friday, it is unlikely you will go to the birthday party.'' Meaning, your chances of staying at home are higher than going to the party if you don't pass the test.

Dad says, '' You may not go to the party if you don't pass the test.'' Meaning, if you fail, there is no chance that you will go to the party.

There are six cupcakes in a lunch bag, two of them are vanilla and the other four, chocolate.

If you pick one from the lunch bag, the probability of picking out a chocolate cupcake is greater (more likely) than picking out a vanilla cupcake. Why? Because there are more chocolate cupcakes than vanilla cupcakes inside your lunch bag.

The probability of picking out a vanilla cupcake is much less (unlikely) than picking out a chocolate cupcake. Why? because there are fewer vanilla cupcakes than chocolate cupcakes inside your bag.

Written out in number form, the probability of picking out a vanilla cupcake would be: 2 out of 6 or 2 / 6. There are six cupcakes inside my lunch bag and two of them are vanilla.

Written out in number form, the probability of picking out a chocolate cupcake would be: 4 out of 6 or 4 / 6. There are six cupcakes inside my lunch bag and four of them are chocolate.

Okay, now we should take a few moments to review what we've learned. **Probability** is the chance that something will happen. The words certain, likely, equal, unlikely, and impossible will help you describe your chances. Our definitions for these are as follows:

**Certain**: an event will happen without a doubt**Likely**: the probability of one event is higher than the probability of another event**Equal probability**: the chance of each event happening is the same**Unlikely**: one event is less likely to happen versus another event**Impossible**: there's no chance of an event happening

We also learned that probability can be written in number form, which we looked at with some various examples.

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Math for Kids23 chapters | 325 lessons

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