Base Rate Fallacy: Definition & Example


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question 1 of 3

If you flip a coin 4 times, which of the following results is the most likely to occur (H = heads; T = tails)?

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1. Which term describes the misjudgment of the likelihood of an event due to not paying attention to relevant base rate information?

2. Which term describes the likelihood of an event occurring out there in the world regardless of what the conditions of a particular situation may be?

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About This Quiz & Worksheet

With these assessments, you will be asked questions about the likelihood of results and the misjudgment of likelihood via multiple base rate examples.

Quiz & Worksheet Goals

The focus of this practice will be on:

  • Significant base-rate details
  • The likelihood of events
  • Practical applications of likelihood calculation
  • Misjudgment of likelihood

Skills Practiced

  • Interpreting information - verify that you can read information regarding the base rate fallacy and interpret it correctly
  • Critical thinking - apply relevant concepts to examine information about probability in a different light
  • Reading comprehension - ensure that you draw the most important information from the related base rate fallacy lesson

Additional Learning

If you desire to know more of the base rate fallacy, have a look at our affiliated lesson, Base Rate Fallacy: Definition & Example. This lesson will principally focus on:

  • Base rate and the base rate fallacy
  • The base rate of a coin toss
  • Examples of the base rate fallacy